4 Steps in the Decision Processes of Digital Farming

Digital farming is about exercising a digital twin that models a continuum of the growth of a crop/variety; the digital twin is the chronology of cultivation decision points in agriculture. Chronology is the science of arranging events in their order of occurrence. Also, cultivation is the act of growing something or improving its growth, especially crops.

A digital twin of farming, therefore, models the workflows in the continuous processes and attempts to provide a digital surrogate for the cultivation process that can be evaluated many times and used to examine decision processes before they are attempted in the real world. The cultivation, as a continuous process, is the temporal continuum established by the crop/variety that is to be modeled. Each decision point along that continuum is a surrogate for the events in the cultivation that require resolution in a fixed timeframe; a timeframe that is established by the events of the cultivation.

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The simple model I will expand upon that can be used for dealing with agriculture decisions originated with a Colonel John Boyd, a Vietnam era fighter pilot. He framed the concept of the decision loop. This decision loop provides the underlying construct for the digital farming platform. Col. Boyd applied this concept as a mental model for air combat with four steps: Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. He called this an OODA Loop. His premise for this simple mental model was that, “it has to be simple, you had to execute it continuously, and you must get inside of the decision loop of your opponent”.

All of the decision points along the continuum of a cultivation are a series of event, and each has a decision loop. The decision loops occur in a timeframe in which the entire loop must be completed. If the decision is not completed in the specific timeframe, the process breaks down and the triggering event has results. In the case of a fighter pilot, you get shot down.

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In the case of agriculture, there may be lost revenue or increased costs to eventually resolve the event.  The timeframe of the decision is defined by the duration of a process that represents this OODA loop; it is an abstract model of a repeatable process. This decision loop includes the same four steps: observe, orient, decide, and act. As presented below, these labels are modified for agriculture.

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OODA can be adapted to agriculture and the cultivation of a crop: and this mental model can be formalized in a digital twin and is hierarchically recursive. There is a parent loop; this is potentially a multi-year stewardship loop or a farm management loop, and there are numerous internal loops that are part of the temporal continuum of the single cultivation.

In agriculture, we can characterize the steps of the decision loop as many internal loops that can be relabeled as: (1) Observe: Indication, (2) Orient: Detection/Localization/Identification/Verification, (3) Decide: Analysis and Course of Action, and (4) Act: Mitigation/Remediation/Validation. These are the expressions of the Observe, Orient, Decide, Act steps for agriculture. A little more detail clearly shows how these are themselves OODA loops that enable decisions using the right tools, at the right times, to affect the right decision, and these close the loop to validate the decision.

INDICATION: Soil has a memory. Its topology and horizons are not changing. If there was a stress at that point in the soil before, there will probably be another there in the future. This stress could be a weed, an insect/bug, a nutrient deficiency, a lack of hydration, etc. These historical facts mean that the indication is there for a reference, and the digital twin in the computer, with the precision enabled by GPS, can remind us of that stress and the indication, i.e., the reference, that it provides. Further, we know what that stress was, and will be. We don’t need to go looking for something new until we examine what has been. We have a digital twin that can remind us continuously along the temporal continuum of the exact indication upon which to focus; or observe, orient, decide, act.

DETECTION/LOCALIZATION/IDENTIFICATION/VERIFICATION: This step initiates when, after Indication, there is the detection of the stress. This is an important point in the Orient step. At this point of detection, there is a wealth of information available.

First, and foremost, the stress is known. The stress has a past, it was used to reference the indication, and it immediately geo spatially locates the stress. This information can be used to determine whether there has been a spread, if it may have propagated, and what its boundaries may be. Comparing this with previous Indications measures the efficiency of the previous mitigation/remediation; simultaneously informing the model about all of the history of that location.

The signature of the stress is known. All of the identification information is available including its spectral reflection, its growth cycles, and its entire pathology. The signature identifies, informs, and verifies the stress. This can inform the decision about whether it is the same stress or the mutation of that stress into something more complex and persistent. The Indication also makes the identification easier by limiting the number of entities to search and match. This identification opens up a host of information not only about the field location but also information available in the world at large. This process of orienting towards a specific stress enables precision, minimizes costs, and limits the decision step to achieve the surgical precision that minimizes any potential inundation of the unstressed areas.

ANALYSIS and COURSE OF ACTION: Because of the Orient step, every decision represents a limited number of responses/decisions; the Courses of Action. In order to understand the choices, the full facts of the Orient step need to be revealed and analyzed. Oftentimes, these facts include the preludes to history; the early facts that support the courses of action and the ultimate decision that needs to be made. Without going through this step, the decision is in jeopardy.

The facts of the Orient step require analysis. Sometimes this is a simple process; sometime the process is deeper, complex, and more involved. Today, the world of analysis is dominated by the discussions of Artificial Intelligence (AI); however, more often, what is needed is nothing more than historical information about the indication, some simple arithmetic, and maybe the predictive domain of statistics.

Another consideration is data quality; an understanding of data provenance and context. In the absence of these two considerations, “any road will get you there.” To make an accurate assessment of the Orient step, the provenance and context of the data must be understood. What stage is the cultivation? What courses of action preceded it? Questions like these give the data a context which may minimize, or maximize, the value of the data and the analysis.

Finally, in this step a decision must be made. No decision is also, indeed, a decision. The result of this step often reveals a singular decision out of all of the courses of action. Again, this decision might not have been visible without the analysis and reflection on the data available in the orient step.

MITIGATION/REMEDIATION and VALIDATION:  The decisions of Mitigation and Remediation address a plethora of responses: from a surgical decision based upon very localized, precision-measured location and boundary information, to broad field or area wide action to eliminate a virulent threat. The Orient information and the analysis and course of action decision will spell out in detail the action and timing to achieve a desire outcome.

Independent of the decision made, at some post decision and post action time frame, a repeat of the Observe and Orient steps must be made in order to validate that indeed the stress had been properly dealt with and the desired outcome was achieved. If they have not been dealt with, a new decision and course of action and mitigation/remediation/validation must be completed. If they have been achieved, nothing further is warranted. The Validation step is one of the most often neglected steps in any decision process.

Digital farming is about the digital twin and its modeling of the continuum of the cultivation. The cultivation is one long OODA loop with numerous and many nested and recursive OODA loops. All of these OODA loops must be completed in the time frames determined by their role in the cultivation. This outline and structure of the cultivation defines the framework of the digital twin. Its basic structure informs the twin about its needed structure.

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